From: Sean Breheny <shb7@cornell.edu>
To: Microcontroller discussion list - Public. <piclist@mit.edu>
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Date: Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:42:38 -0800
Subject: Re: [OT]:: CORONA VIRUS - THE BEST OFFICIAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE -
	DAILY W.H.O. UPDATES
Thread-Topic: [OT]:: CORONA VIRUS - THE BEST OFFICIAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE
 -	DAILY W.H.O. UPDATES
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I believe that in the US during the worse years for the flu, death rate is
about 0.2%. Infection rate is typically about 2% but has been as high as
about 15%.

Based on the data so far, it looks to me like the final case fatality rate
for COVID-19 will be about 7% (lower if there are huge numbers of
asymptomatic cases or otherwise unreported cases). I get this figure by
fitting a simple 3 parameter disease propagation model to the data so far
and then looking at the fraction of deaths over completed cases.

As James Newton pointed out on Facebook, you can't just take deaths/cases
because when it is still rapidly growing in number of cases, the deaths
only come from the cases a week or two ago.
--=20
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