> I can see a day where flash drives are passed around. =A0Oh, wait, that d=
ay is
> already here.

I carry 50+ GB of flash when out photographing in earnest* - and I can
see that having to increase as file sizes rise :-(. But it may be a
wee while before they match the 1 TB + rotating thingies.

Perhaps about 1.5 x log_2(1000/16) ~=3D 8 or 9 years.

1 TB flash by ~=3D 2018.

Assumes:
Modified Moore's law - doubling every 1.5 years.
16 MB flash ~=3D 1 TB HDD as near but not at leading edge.

Also - flash may well be replaced by other technology AND new
technology may give a capacity step at inception and maybe a different
growth law.

* 3000 photos x 10 MB =3D 30 GB
x 20 MB =3D 60 GB.

JPEG fine + compressed raw is around 15-20 MB/file on Sony A700.
Recent 24+ MP full frames may be several times that :-(.


       Russell.

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