Quoting piclist@ian.org:

> On Fri, 25 Jul 2008, Apptech wrote:
>> This is a very recent 'speech' by Al Gore challenging the US
>> (the title says America) to convert all US electricity
>> generation to non-hydrocarbon dependent sources within 10
>> years. It covers more than that, but that's the core.
>
> We simply do not have the technical, political or economic capital to do
> this in ten years.
>
> However, if we pushed as hard as we could on all fronts we could make some
> massive improvements.  If we reduse the need for oil a small amount, it
> can make a HUGE decrease in the cost.  Thats how things work when a
> resource is not enough to meet demand.  The price skyrockets as you hit
> that limit.  A 10% reduction in oil use would probably put the price of
> gas back to $1 or $2 a gallon.

That was the case in the old days, when the US was a huge part of oil
consumption and growth in oil consumption-- partly because rich Europe
and rich Japan chose to squelch consumer demand for fuel (which they  
had to import) through extremely heavy taxation. By simply reducing US  
demand
(for example, by devaluing the dollar and increasing the price to US
consumers) the price would be reduced in real terms since the market
would only bear so much. But with the BRIC countries experiencing  
massive increases in wealth, and even with the non-oil energy sources  
being exploited to a much greater degree by wind farms in China, coal  
fired and nuclear plants, and biofuels in Brazil, we are still seeing  
very high growth rates in industrializing countries. Further, they`ve  
chosen to tax fuel to a very limited degree, so prices are  
more-or-less on a par with US prices.

So, I think conservation and alternative energy sources are most likely
not to reduce US dollar valued energy costs but more likely just keep things
steady. Further, as the rupee and the yuan appreciate vis-a-vis the  
USD, that means that two billion people can more easily outbid  
Americans for the same limited energy (and polymer) resources. As it  
is, we seem to be on an
unstoppable curve to 100E6 barrels per day, which is a problem if
supply in fact tops out at 80E6 barrels per day. I do think prices will
likely moderate a bit from current levels, but nothing like the $15-20
a barrel we saw in the 90`s.

> So his goals are unrealistic, but there is absolutly nothing wrong with
> trying.  Anything would be better than the last 7 years of head in the
> sand do-nothings we have had for our leadership.
>
> (You were right to post it in OT.. I would have moved it here for my
> crazy ranting post anyway :-)
>
> --
> Ian Smith
> www.ian.org
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Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany
-- 
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