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On Sat, Feb 09, 2008 at 12:04:06PM -0800, William Chops Westfield wrote:
> 
> On Feb 9, 2008, at 6:06 AM, Peter Todd wrote:
> 
> > [I suspect] initially the cold war was *relatively* friendly
> 
> You're kidding!?  If you divide the cold war into 1945-1965 (djia 10x  
> growth) and 1965-1985 (djia "flat"), then the first half includes  
> most of the major nuclear weapons initial invention ("Limited Test  
> Ban Treaty" in 1963 stopped atmospheric testing), The US "McCarthy  
> era", the Cuban Missile Crisis, fallout shelters, school drills for  
> nuclear attack,  and in general a feeling that REAL war could erupt  
> at any moment.  The second half was comparatively mild in attitude,  
> perhaps post-MAD; nuclear war became "unthinkable" rather than  
> "expected at any moment and we're going to WIN."

Perhaps I am showing my age, or lack of it. :)

Maybe one should ask what the real effect the early cold war had on
business planning. I mean, if real war did break out, it would have
looked like a complete doomsday scenario, so why discount things based
on that? Oil prices were low and as others have mentioned there was
tremendous scientific progress. (although, note that the first man on
the moon was 4 years after growth stopped)

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

Meanwhile in the more recent Iraq war the economy lost tremendous
amounts of value, likely recognizing the very real effects of an actual
war that would actually cause oil prices to skyrocket. (amoung other
negatives)

- -- 
http://petertodd.org
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