> ... The current crop of species here have 'balanced out', =

> having deleted
> perhaps millions of other species in the process. Our =

> current mechanisms have
> been pretty primitive at really 'doing anything', ie, =

> producing more of the
> same gases that already exist, just at greater qty, or =

> introducing synthetic
> chemicals in limited areas that the human hierarchy =

> declared 'safe', yet look
> at the damage done.

Indeed.

In GE, whether by direct life synthesis using the toolkit, =

or by less direct hacking, the "best" thing that can happen =

is an extremely significant disaster that kills, say, tens =

of thousands of people or, possibly, animals unequivocally, =

unhideably, very uniquely and relatively fast. There should =

be no way that it can be explained away, seen as an isolated =

case or hidden. If it can be it will be. If it can't they =

will try. As a bonus the death that it brings should be as =

painless and pleasant as possible.

This, while an undoubted catastrophe for the people involved =

in various ways, would be the "best thing" [tm] for the =

human race as a whole as it provides an unmistakeable heads =

up of the dangers involved and is the most likely means of =

achieving subsequent proper treatment of the whole issue. It =

would almost certainly lead to a medium term knee jerk =

over-reaction with excessive caution and banning of anything =

vaguely related and a great set back to progress in the =

field, followed by an oscillatory approach to a reasoned and =

steady state 'solution' to the problem. Anything that is not =

massively lethal and unable to be seen for what it is will =

not touch the hive mind well enough to be effective. This is =

essentially the way that major progress occurs in any area =

of major human risk. While many would hope that an animal =

catastrophe would serve the same purpose, the spin doctors =

generally have enough sway that you need a more gut level =

approach.

My most likely "doomsday" scenarios for GE in all its guises =

come in  two forms.

1.    "Long duration nuclear bomber is substituted for an =

airliner on a scheduled route and then holds the country to =

ransom - or just nukes the white house". aka A "vector" that =

is benign and familiar to the target is used to carry a =

payload or payloads into areas where they can do essentially =

unlimited damage. The need for self reproduction is a given. =

This is the form that the (accidental) proof of concept =

Australian mouse virus took. It's saving grace was that =

while utterly lethal it proved to be much less infectious =

than would be usually expected. There is no reason to think =

that both characteristics must be mutually exclusive and =

every reason to think that they need not. Had it escaped =

"into the wild" its low infectiousness would probably have =

not allowed it to spread. If it had been normally or above =

normally infectious and had escaped then all species related =

Australian mice would probably be dead by now - and possibly =

worldwide. While at 1st gasp this may seem to be a positive =

there is every chance that this would not prove to be the =

case. One can be as near certain as one can be about =

anything that "biological warfare" teams worldwide have been =

working with this information ever since and by now will =

have come up with some real doozies.

Note that the 'attacking enemy" in the following is a part =

of "the victims" own genetic structure - whether by mutation =

or other means)

2.    "Wake the Alien Queen" / "Berlin Airlift". aka Long =

long ago in a world not at all far away the masters of =

internal genetic 'improvement' and destruction and survival =

fought their battles. The most successful died because they =

killed their hosts too effectively. [Ebola approach]. The =

least successful died because their hosts fought them too =

effectively. Sometimes the fight was intelligence rather =

than just cellular-selection driven [eg Smallpox]. =

Somewhere in the middle there was a terrible battle (such as =

we now see with eg sickle cell anemia) where the losses were =

not so great as to persuade or compel their victims to =

succumb or exist without procreation, but the effects were =

terrible to behold. As with SCA there may have been side =

benefits (freedom from Malaria for SCA) which helped the =

protagonists to carve out a niche in the victims genome. =

Over time the victims built genetic ring fences around their =

internal enemy self and the enemy, though still carried =

within, was "turned off" and no longer able to do its thing. =

We now come, both with Venter's help, and with all the =

traditional GE approaches and leap the ring fences or, =

better still, 'fly in' 'fly out' material across the =

boundaries. Or we may create 7 league boots that go looking =

for clients who wish to change location. Occasionally we =

break down the ring fences but so far, as we are woefully =

ill equipped for identifying a ring fence when we see one =

the random airlifts tend to be the more common means. Any of =

these scenarios may suddenly unleash an old foe into a =

battleground where the once effective opposition has long =

since itself been dismantled or ring fenced away as =

unnecessary or too costly to maintain in operating condition =

when there is no longer a crucial call for its services. =

While it may be that the reappearance of the old foe will =

also trigger the reawakening of its nemesis, it is more =

likely that the ringfenced saviour will remain that way as =

the old fully armed, up to speed and ready for action enemy =

cuts a swath across a battlefield that has not been through =

the normal "arms race" of preparation that allowed it to =

compete with it well enough to ensure a degree of =

client(that's you and yours) survival. The consequence may =

be that something that was simply crippling before will now =

be species risking.

In 1918-1919 a new strain of influenza (good old common flu =

to you) killed more people than died in the whole of World =

War 1. In places where flu was especially unknown it was =

especially effective. Samoa suffered very badly. When =

Europeans first discovered Tahiti en masse they imported the =

common cold (3 days of work for you) which caused massive =

fatalities. When Alien and Predator are unleashed in our =

genomes there is no reason to think that they MAY not be as =

lethal as the common cold was, long ago in Tahiti.

____________

While my terminology is (purposefully) irregular and my =

depth of knowledge shallow to non-existent and while in some =

areas I am just plain wrong, I'd utterly guarantee that =

Craig Venter would whole-heartedly agree with the general =

gist of what I say.

We stand on the bridge at Khazad-d=FBm.
The not distant enough drums sound their doom-doom call.
I do believe that's a Balrog over there ...





                        Russell

-- =

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