On 06/12/2007, Ruben J=F6nsson <ruben@pp.sbbs.se> wrote:

> > >> Is that really correct? Surely the host always picks a known
> non-prize
> > >> door,
> > >> and gives the contestant a second choice, whether or not they picked
> > >> the correct one?
> > >
> > >That's my understanding as well, the hosts behaviour is always the
> same.
> > >After the contestant selects a door, the host will always open one of
> > >the other doors with a goat behind it.  The behaviour is the same
> > >whether or not the contestant picked the car on his first choice.
> >
> > So then the first choice is irrelevant, and it comes down to 50:50
> chance
> > that you pick the right one.
> >
>
> No, you always win if you initially pick a goat and then switch doors
> (since
> the host has to pick the other goat). 2/3 chance of winning.
>
> /Ruben
> =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
> Ruben J=F6nsson
> AB Liros Electronic
> Box 9124, 200 39 Malm=F6, Sweden
> TEL INT +46 40142078
> FAX INT +46 40947388
> ruben@pp.sbbs.se
> =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
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 Very good point - has clarified the whole mess for me.
> Thanks,
> Richard
>
>
>
>
-- =

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