I think people get it wrong and think there is no advantage to switching
because they think it is all about probabilities, and it's not.  I once
told it to a friend who started writing down mathematical equations to
figure it out.  Her equations didn't reflect the fact that the "host"
alters the game for you or against you, depending on if you switch or
not.  


> -----Original Message-----
> From: piclist-bounces@mit.edu [mailto:piclist-bounces@mit.edu] On
Behalf
> Of Dave Tweed
> Sent: 5. joulukuuta 2007 19:23
> To: piclist@mit.edu
> Subject: RE: [OT] The Monty Hall problem
> 
> I don't know why people have so much trouble with this.
> 
> You know up front that the host is going to reveal one of the "goat"
> doors, taking it out of play. Therefore, it's really a two-door game
> from the outset, and you have a 50% chance of picking the correct
door.
> 
> The only "mystery" is that you don't know /which/ two doors will end
up
> being in play at the time you make your first choice, only that the
door
> you pick will be one of them. Not a big deal.
> 
> There's /no/ advantage in switching.
> 
> -- Dave Tweed
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