> -----Original Message-----
> From: piclist-bounces@mit.edu [mailto:piclist-bounces@mit.edu] On
Behalf
> Of Alan B. Pearce
> Sent: 05 December 2007 14:18
> To: Microcontroller discussion list - Public.
> Subject: Re: [OT] The Monty Hall problem
> 
> >> Is that really correct? Surely the host always picks a known
non-prize
> >> door,
> >> and gives the contestant a second choice, whether or not they
picked
> >> the correct one?
> >
> >That's my understanding as well, the hosts behaviour is always the
same.
> >After the contestant selects a door, the host will always open one of
> >the other doors with a goat behind it.  The behaviour is the same
> >whether or not the contestant picked the car on his first choice.
> 
> So then the first choice is irrelevant, and it comes down to 50:50
chance
> that you pick the right one.


That was my gut feeling, and it seems totally logical.  Does it make a
difference if the host opened a door before or after the contestant
makes his/her first choice?

However, I found a simulator that does appear to show that switching
significantly improves you chances (run say 1000 rounds and note that
switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning, whilst not switching gives
you a 2/3 chance of losing).  I hate probabilities.

http://www.userpages.de/monty_hall_problem/

Regards

Mike

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