> If you have a choice to make between two doors, then the odds 
> must be 50:50

As a catch-all statement that is (of course) nonsense. If you have a
choice between two doors, but know there is no car, your odds are 0:0.
If there are two cars, the odds are 1:1. If I am honest and I tell you
where the car is your odds are 1:0 (or 0:1). So you realy must do some
thinking, applying gut-feeling won't work. Of course it won't, this case
gets so much attention *because* gut-feeling 'logic' does not work here.

Wouter van Ooijen

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Van Ooijen Technische Informatica: www.voti.nl
consultancy, development, PICmicro products
docent Hogeschool van Utrecht: www.voti.nl/hvu
 
 

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