Russell McMahon wrote:

>> Exactly. What is the (scientific, no less) theory that is behind the
>> "and not likely to change anytime soon" affirmation? It is not, just to
>> take this out of the way, the laws of thermodynamics, because it is not
>> about them: it is about whether someone might be able to come up
>> "anytime soon" with something that nobody (or at least not Tony) has
>> considered so far (theory, process, technology, whatever). Is there a
>> scientific theory about the probability of such an event
> 
> Yes.

Then what is the theory that predicts the probability of "whether someone
might be able to come up 'anytime soon' with something that nobody (or at
least not Tony) has considered so far (theory, process, technology,
whatever)" -- other than the obvious answer (1)? 


> The point of the above is to note that there IS in fact a wholly 
> serious current proposal about the probability of producing an "anti 
> gravity" system, 

I'm not sure we have an agreement about "probability" and what it means to
establish a theory about predicting the probability of an event. 

It seems to me you are talking about the /possibility/ that something
happens, which to me is a completely different thing than a theory that
predicts a probability. A discussion about the possibility that a proposal
is serious and realistic is not the attempt to establish a theory about the
probability of such a proposal happening. 

Again, and that was what made me start this sub-thread... probability of an
event (in a scientific sense) is a clear concept. (I say "in a scientific
sense" because that excludes the Bayesian concept of probability, in that
it is subjective and as such not compatible with a scientific approach.) It
is a value that can be calculated, based on (many) observations. For
certain events there are theories that result in probability figures. This
is something completely different from considering the possibility of
something. 

Isn't this all about sound science, and that it won't change "anytime
soon"? :)

Gerhard

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