>> In the case of CF we may waste time and effort on an impossible 
>> dream.
>> But if there really is a path then failing to be amongst the early
>> innovators may lead to not only a loss of the immense financial
>> opportunities, but leave 'us' facing unspeakable catastrophe as eg
>> nuclear weapon availability falls to the local gang leader level. 
>> If
>> there's even a very very very slight possibility of the latter 
>> occurring
>> then throwing a few millions to the researchers every now and then 
>> may
>> make GW seem a very poor investment indeed by comparison :-).

> I'm not following you here... How is accelerating the discovery, or 
> trying
> to influence the geopolitical location of the discovery, helping in
> avoiding the catastrophe?

It's a matter of opinion, as are most things.
Note that I speak, in this as in many things, as an "armchair 
analyst".
(plus a smattering of devil's advocate and perhaps a hint of agent 
provocateur for seasoning).

My opinions are about what may seem to be best for eg a country from 
the country's point of view. This does not mean it is or isn't 
necessarily my view personally on what is "best" in absolute terms. I 
may not even hold an opinion on what is 'best' in a given situation or 
feel qualified to express or hold an absolute opinion. It's easier to 
read people/countries/organisations 'minds' than to know absolute 
truth :-) [[Some, eg James, don't fully understand this distinction 
when I express an opinion.]]

So: It steam engines come steam engine time. The Cold Fusion 'steam 
engine' may not exist at all. But, if it does, then it feels like it 
is imminent.

If "we" (aka the establishment) are the 'discoverers' the existence 
of, nature, general magnitude and barriers to entry to the new system 
can be known (although SPACWAR seem intent on sharing their various 
discoveries freely). If 'we' leave it to persons unknown to do the 
discovering then none of these are fully knowable and may be unknown 
for an extended period after discovery.

While I suspect that if 'Cold Fusion' (CF) does exist then it will be 
a genii that cannot be put back in its bottle, it seems highly 
desirable for the US, that the US or those who walk reasonably in step 
with it be the discoverer. CF in the form it is thought liable to take 
(if it exists) * will open up the area of both "unlimited power" and 
nuclear capability to not only any country but even to almost any 
organisation of any significant size. As the US already has 
essentially unlimited nuclear weapons capability and has proven itself 
capable (albeit sometimes perhaps only just) of not using it, it seems 
a somewhat more trustable body than some others to first discover such 
power and seek to limit its applications. In the "unlimited power" 
area it is in the US's interests to be 'first on the scene' purely for 
financial reasons, let alone many others.

If CF was discovered by any of a number of smaller countries which are 
hostile to the US then there is significant prospect that new classes 
of nuclear armaments would be both developed covertly and then used.



        Russell

* CF is expected to provide a source of highish energy neutrons from 
essentially electrochemical means. Such a source would probably be 
able to be used to produce weapons grade fissionable material from 
relatively readily available U238. While U235 is rare and very very 
very tightly controlled, it would be almost impossible to prevent a 
suitably enthusiastic and well funded body from obtaining U238 as 
required.



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