Howard Winter wrote:

>>> An excerpt from the 2006 CIA factbook:
>>> 
>>> Rank  Country        Death rate (deaths/1,000 population)
>>> 1     Swaziland      29.74
>>> ..........
>>> 107   United States  8.26
>>> ..........
>>> 166   Israel         6.18
>>> ..........
>>> 219   Gaza Strip     3.80
>>> ...........
>>> 226   Northern 
>>>      Mariana Islands 2.29

>> That is total death rate. [...] Where are the figures on VIOLENT death?
> 
> I think those must be them, because if they are the total death rates
> then life expectancy is a bit overestimated:  1000/2.29 means that
> (assuming they are averages per year), a Northern Mariana Islander has a
> life expectancy of over 436, while a USAmerican can look forward to
> "only" living to 121. 

I'm not sure how you come to these figures, but they seem to assume some
things around birth rate, total population number stability and age
distribution that are not quite in alignment with reality. I'm not sure
whether it's that simple -- but I'm not really a statistics expert.

For example, the CIA gives for the USA: birth rate 14/1000, death rate
8/1000, net migration 3/1000, pop. growth 0.9%/y, life expectancy 78y. The
Northern Mariana Islands numbers in the same sequence: 19/1000, 2/1000,
8/1000, 2.5%, 76y. I'm not sure where your 121y and 436y fit in here. 

I also don't know whether you've seen the various messages where I posted
FBI (and government) numbers of violent death rates. They are much smaller. 

You can of course doubt both the CIA and the FBI -- but in this case, the
numbers look rather realistic :)

Gerhard

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