I said:

> They MAY make it to orbit first time out, but all sorts of past 
> history says they almost certainly wont.

They didn't.
Video at

        http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/%7esharring/spacex.wmv

Probable cause: 1st stage LOX insulation blanket was velcro'd on and 
intended to be lanyarded off at launch but the infamous 'LOX freezes 
water to ice' problem that kills many early attempts in all sorts of 
ways glued the blanket on and it went for the ride flapping wildly.

General opinion from video is that it obstructed the roll control 
nozzle operation throughout its stay and when it tore off at about 
20-s may have damaged the nozzle.

Shame they lost a second stage and a paid for satellite as well.



        RM 

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