>> Forecast / prophecy:   (note it on your calendar ;-) ).
>>
>> - 3 years from now all major DSLR camera makers will have EVFs in
>> their DSLRs.

> There's an inherent fault in your logic Russ.  You're neglecting the 
> fact
> Nikon releases new products about once a decade...

Prophecy need take no note of present practices.
Nikon will conform or die.
As Minolta just did :-(.

> - 10 years from now all but some specialist top end cameras will not
>> be true optical SLRs.

> FWIW, I love my D70, and you can pry it out of my cold dead hands if 
> you
> think I'll ever purchase an Olympus.  The reality is, once you have 
> an SLR,
> you really don't need a live LCD.

I own a DSLR.

> I would never use mine even if it was
> live.  I can get a better picture through the viewfinder as I don't 
> need to
> fight the sun/glare.  I'm sure over time though, most people will go 
> for an
> arrangement like this.  Though I think it really only has utility 
> with the
> PaS crowd.

You have missed the point.
It's not the crummy thing on the BACK that will be live - I don't care 
if it's live or dead. I only use the back LCD on my 7D because it 
hasn't got an EVF. And to show people shots I have taken.

It's the VIEWFINDER that will be electronic and live - the place 
that's currently optically coupled to the lens most but not all of the 
time.

To think that this only applies to the 'Point & Shoot" class suggests 
lack of experience with a good EVF (electronic viewfinder) camera. I 
presently own a Minolta 7D Digital SLR. But prior to that I took over 
200,000 photos with a 5 megapixel "prosumer" EVF based Minolta 7Hi. 
The 7D SLR has 3 fundamental areas of superiority to the 7Hi.
- Larger sensor (so less noise and / or more sensitivity allowing 
either higher ISO settings or less noise.
- Interchangeable lenses.
- Antishake in the body (unlike any other brand of DSLR)

Apart from these features the 7Hi is superior to the 7D and to all 
digital SLRs that I am aware of (Up to and including the flagship 
canon EOS1Dxxxx) as a photo-taking system. Others may have faster 
frame rates (7Hi ~= 3fps), larger buffers (7Hi=128 MB), faster 
processors or fancier software, but as a concept the EVF camera 
utterly trounces the DSLR concept.

- Live histogram (vvvvv valuable for a serious photographer)

- See what you are about to REALLY get on 'film' in the viewfinder 
before you take the shot AND while you are taking the shot (unlike 
DSLR which only shows it on a (sun affected) screen in the back of the 
camera AFTER it's taken the shot.

- See true depth of field in the viewfinder before the shot.

- Zoom focus so well that the optical viewfinder is but a pale shadow 
in its focusing ability. And the subsequent A1 & A2 models were even 
better.

- Any filters, contrast settings, sharpness settings etc are visible 
BEFORE you take the shot.

- "Bright up" (don't you just love that term) allows you to view dark 
scenes at a level that suits your eye. The live histogram allows you 
to see what's really happening when the display is made 
unrepresentatively bright.

And more.
Flapping glass mirrors are an arcane and ancient joke. They are almost 
past their use by date. Up until now only the top prosumers (like my 
7Hi) had good enough EVFs OR managed them well enough to justify their 
use instead of an optical path viewfinder. The 7His EVF was 
pathetically low resolution (under 100 kpixels!) BUT intelligent use 
of that made it competitive for system use. The A2 had a VGA display 
in its EVF!. Once that goes to 1024 x 768 an optical path will be of 
very little value IF the EVF is intelligently done.

The reason I said that essentially all DSLRs would be like the Olympus 
within 3 years was that you can't wean the top end optical boys off 
their toys instantly. BUT once the EVF is an option and they see how 
good it is the days of true SLR are doomed. As I prophesied :-). But, 
don't take my word for it - write it on your calendar and tell me I 
was wrong in due course :-).

In the interim, borrow a Minolta A2 (NOT an A200) and marvel at its 
EVF.

Postscript: A few months ago I had an opportunity to take wedding 
photos alongside a team of professional photographers. They used 
modern DSLRs and I used my 7Hi. I didn't envy them the cumbersome 
nature of the systems they used - even though each was worth over 
$20K. Their photos were good. But they had to work harder than I did 
to take them.



        RM


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