> >Anything
> > that comes from ex-Soviet technology will likely be a
> > MIRV containing 3 or more independently targeted
> > warheads.
> 
> Greatest threats short term are novo-nuclear powers with V2 / SCUD /
> ... path ancestry. Unlikely to help if anyone does a high tech
> pasting. For high tech Chinese are the most currently probable,
> Russians the most currently capable (apart from the US and an own
> goal). For low tech missiles derived or sourced by India, Pakistan,
> North Korea, ?Israel?, China indirectly, Iran possibly. Libya v
> indirectly only. Chinese technology to elsewhere maybe. (Who did I
> miss)(Britain? France? ... ;-) ) The latter are unlikely to use MIRVs
> at this stage anyway. Famous last words.
> 
>         RM

True, BUT (big one) that still leaves the interceptor on its own to
distinguish, on the fly in mere seconds, which item is the warhead
and which items are debris from the launch vehicle, since most of
that stuff is going to follow a fairly similar path after seperation.

And at the rate they're going, neolithic cultures in South American
rainforests will have developed MIRV capability before their system
is in place.

Mike H.

PS- For an example of (arguably) the only really successful 
anti-missile missile system (including the Patriot), see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Nike
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