>> House still exists 25 to 75 years from now

> That's not quite right.

No. I was exactly right :-)
That was my *assumption*.

But I agree with everything you say :-).
My ASSUMPTION set included the whole period under current coverage by the
projections. I was aware that the 2029 event was the most probable event.

But , changing my assumptions to "house still exists 25 years from now"
would have made negligible difference to the conclusion. As you suggest.

> The probability listed is cumulative,

"Proper" Torino scale is in fact not meant to be cumulative but to state the
probability of the most probable event in the series. In this case I note
that they are saying the result is cumulative. In this case, as you note,
the primary encounter predominates and so it makes little difference.
There's a chance that it will turn out to be a stage from a deep space craft
from some decades ago.

> and is in fact dominated by a relatively probable (10e-2) event in 2029.
> The next most likely events are about a half dozen later on with 10e-5
> probability, and then there are a bunch of things down in the
> "couple in a million" category, including everything after 2044...

A 1,500 megaton equivalent asteroid strike is something that I would like to
have seen and to tell my great great grandchildren about.
But not something that I would like to try and see :-)


        RM

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