--=_mixed 0050635086256DAA_= Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=_alternative 0050635086256DAA_=" --=_alternative 0050635086256DAA_= Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Russel, that is ingenious! Kinda works well with my "digikey/4" rule - take digikey's 100 piece price and divide by 4, that's close to what you will see in 50,000 volumes. Log10(50K) = 4.7 -- Lawrence Lile Russell McMahon Sent by: pic microcontroller discussion list 09/23/2003 05:59 AM Please respond to pic microcontroller discussion list To: PICLIST@MITVMA.MIT.EDU cc: Subject: [EE]: Volume prices of components I was trying to get a feel for the probable higher volume cost of various components based on known lower price breaks. While there can be many factors involved which make this an impossible task, a friend pointed out an approximate relationship which seems to work quite well enough top be useful as a ROUGH rule of thumb. "Prices decrease by the exponent of the volume" Unit price = $X 10 price = X / log10(10) = x/1 = X (duh) 100 price = X / log10(100) = $X/2 1000 price = X /log10(1000) = $X/3 ... 1,000,000 price = X/log10(1000000) = $X/6 Note that log(1) = 0 which mucks things up if you try to work backwards :-) ______________ You can also convert between medium and higher level price breaks. eg if 100 price is $1 then 1000 and 10000 price may be expected to be 100 1 1,000 1 x log(100)/log(1000) = 1 x 2/3 = $0.66 10,000 1 x log(100)/log(10000) = 1 x 2/4 = $0.50 This curve is a surprisingly good fit to reality (at least for Digikey). I tried it on various Digikey prices and plotted a graph for the LM324 - chosen due to its low price and popularity allowing quotes for a wide range of volumes to be available under the same heading. A graph of LM324's per $ against log10(volume) is attached. This would be a straight line if the assertion were true. A least squares straight line fit is shown for comparison. The match is close enough to be useful. Real prices get cheaper faster than expected as volume rises and then fall off to below expectations at highest volumes. Attached graph is ugly but small :-) YMWV ! Russell "All models are wrong. Some models are useful" McMahon -- http://www.piclist.com hint: To leave the PICList mailto:piclist-unsubscribe-request@mitvma.mit.edu --=_alternative 0050635086256DAA_= Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii"
Russel, that is ingenious!  

Kinda works well with my "digikey/4" rule - take digikey's 100 piece price and divide by 4, that's close to what you will see in 50,000 volumes.  

Log10(50K) = 4.7



-- Lawrence Lile


Russell McMahon <apptech@PARADISE.NET.NZ>
Sent by: pic microcontroller discussion list <PICLIST@MITVMA.MIT.EDU>

09/23/2003 05:59 AM
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        Subject:        [EE]: Volume prices of components



I was trying to get a feel for the probable higher volume cost of various
components based on known lower price breaks.
While there can be many factors involved which make this an impossible task,
a friend pointed out an approximate relationship which seems to work quite
well enough top be useful as a ROUGH rule of thumb.

"Prices decrease by the exponent of the volume"

Unit price = $X
10 price = X / log10(10) = x/1 = X (duh)
100 price = X / log10(100) = $X/2
1000 price = X /log10(1000) = $X/3
...
1,000,000 price = X/log10(1000000) = $X/6

Note that log(1) = 0 which mucks things up if you try to work backwards :-)

______________

You can also convert between medium and higher level price breaks.

eg if 100 price is $1 then 1000 and 10000 price may be expected to be

100          1
1,000       1 x log(100)/log(1000) = 1 x 2/3       = $0.66
10,000     1 x log(100)/log(10000) = 1 x 2/4     = $0.50

This curve is a surprisingly good fit to reality (at least for Digikey).

I tried it on various Digikey prices and plotted a graph for the LM324 -
chosen due to its low price and popularity allowing quotes for a wide range
of volumes to be available under the same heading.

A graph of LM324's per $ against log10(volume) is attached.
This would be a straight line if the assertion were true.
A least squares straight line fit is shown for comparison.
The match is close enough to be useful.
Real prices get cheaper faster than expected as volume rises and then fall
off to below expectations at highest volumes.

Attached graph is ugly but small :-)

YMWV !

       Russell "All models are wrong. Some models are useful" McMahon


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