At a survival rate of 96% a population of 150 with no deaths has a
    probability of about 0.96^150 = 0.002.

That doesn't sound correct, intuitively speaking.  (Of course, my experience
is that probability is frequently counter-intuitive...)  With a survival
rate of 96%, you'd expect 6 deaths in 150 cases, and no deaths is only
slightly surprising...  Perhaps "survival rate" is not the same as the
probability of dying...

BillW

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