Didn't they say where/when this 1/260 will happen?

Mark

On 21 Jan 2003 at 19:18, Russell McMahon wrote:

> Coming to a planet near you soon, improbably.
> Includes table for 43 NEA's.
>
>         http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
>
> Total probability of ONE impact from all 43 objects on this table is about
> one in 260 (according to my spreadsheet).
>
>         RM
>
> _____________________________________
>
> While everyone debates the odds, why don't we take a look at the real
> odds!!!
>
> http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
> Is the link to JPL's NEO impact probability page.  They have the probability
> of over ~40 objects hitting the earth, orbits, years, number of potential
> impacts per object, etc.
>
> As you can see the highest probability for a single object is 1997 XR2 which
> would hit the earth traveling 7.17 km/s in the year 2101.  The probability
> of impact is only 9.7x10^-5
>
> The following is an interesting link showing how many observed object pass
> close to the earth every year.  It is obvious, many objects have always flow
> close but we never started observing them until ~1995.
> http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/number.html
>
> Bryan Flynt
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: Dave/Kristin Hall <thehalls@IWVISP.COM>
> >Reply-To: Dave/Kristin Hall <thehalls@iwvisp_die_spam_die.com>
> >To: AROCKET@HOME.EASE.LSOFT.COM
> >Subject: Re: [AR] A worthy goal not yet taken up by Big Space
> >Date: Mon, 20 Jan 2003 16:46:32 -0800
> >
> ><< 10 minutes is the likely maximum, in my book.  NORAD isn't set up to
> >see incoming asteroids, unless they've changed their search patterns
> >in the last few years.  The more likely warning is 10 seconds - >>
> >
> >I wasn't thinking about NORAD.  I was thinking about all the
> >amateur/university astronomers out there who want their name attached to
> >the
> >next comet/asteroid/etc.  True, we're talking about a smaller object, but
> >we're talking about a much closer object.  I just find it hard to believe
> >that we wouldn't get a warning measured in hours.
> >
> ><< And even if someone thought it was a nuke - wouldn't they check?  Send
> >in a survey/monitor team. >>
> >
> >One would certainly hope so, but there is no precident to verify that
> >practice with.  (And just because we would doesn't mean N. Korea would.)
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> STOP MORE SPAM with the new MSN 8 and get 2 months FREE*
> http://join.msn.com/?page=features/junkmail
>
> --
> http://www.piclist.com hint: To leave the PICList
> mailto:piclist-unsubscribe-request@mitvma.mit.edu

--
http://www.piclist.com hint: To leave the PICList
mailto:piclist-unsubscribe-request@mitvma.mit.edu